Biserko: This year is a test for Montenegro, with increasingly more pressure from Vučić, the Serbian Orthodox Church and Moscow

Montenegro’s European path is unfolding amid strong regional and global upheavals. While Podgorica remains the most advanced country in the Western Balkans in the process of European integration, it is simultaneously facing open and covert pressures coming from Serbia. In this context, the policies of Aleksandar Vučić, the role of the Serbian Orthodox Church, and the growing Russian influence represent a serious test for Montenegro’s political stability and strategic orientation.

President of the Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Serbia Sonja Bisersko spoke for Portal ETV about these issues, as well as of possible changes on Serbia’s political scene, the state of Serbian society, protests, government repression, and Belgrade’s energy dependence on Moscow.

Portal ETV: Do you believe that Belgrade and Aleksandar Vučić will try, by all possible means, to block Montenegro’s European path and its membership in the European Union?

BISERKO: Vučić will certainly continue to obstruct Montenegro and its accelerated progress toward EU membership. However, it should be borne in mind that the situation in Serbia is very fragile, and Vučić’s ability to act in this direction will depend on that.

When it comes to Montenegro, it depends on the country itself how genuinely committed it is to EU membership. It seems that certain circles are not, and are trying to preserve the status quo. Nevertheless, I believe that the sobriety and common sense of Montenegrin citizens will prevail.

The role of the Serbian Orthodox Church, the SIA and the Russian Factor

Portal ETV: Do you think that the Serbian Orthodox Church and the Security Intelligence Agency (SIA) could play a role in this endeavor? What, in your view, can we expect in this context?

BISERKO: The Serbian Orthodox Church is the most important exponent of Belgrade and has played a key role in the formation of all Montenegrin governments since 2020. However, it should be kept in mind that Russian influence is also very important and may even grow, as the Western Balkans are a theater where various interests intersect. Russia can easily destabilize the Western Balkans because it has a strong base in Serbia, Republika Srpska, and Montenegro as well.

Does 2026 bring a political turning point in Serbia?

Portal ETV: Is 2026 the year in which changes on Serbia’s political scene could inevitably occur? Is Vučić leaving?

BISERKO: Belgrade will continue with its current policy, but it should nevertheless be noted that Vučić’s policy has collapsed both internationally and domestically. The question is what its epilogue will be and who will emerge as the main actor after he leaves. This may take time, but there is no return to the old ways. Unfortunately, a clear pro-European orientation has not yet emerged. After decades of nationalist and populist policies, society is awakening, but it is clear that this requires time. I would say this is a process that will eventually produce new actors.

The fall of Vučić - unrest or a slow process of change?

Portal ETV: Could a potential fall of Vučić lead to instability or unrest in Serbia?

BISERKO: Whether there will be unrest - the authorities have responded to protests with repression, dismissals from work of those who supported students, arrests and indictments, and media witch-hunts.

Thus, Serbia is continuously in a kind of siege. What is significant is that fear has been broken - fear has changed sides. The regime is reacting in a panicked and arrogant manner. It mainly relies on loyalists with criminal backgrounds, as it has no trust in its own surroundings. A parallel process is underway in Vučić’s environment - in the prosecution, the courts, and other institutions. For now, he still maintains firm control over the media, which is his important instrument of influence. However, social networks have become crucial for communication among students and demonstrators. Fundamental changes will be slow.

But for that to happen, strong engagement by all united pro-European actors is necessary, of course with strong support from the European Union.

The fate of NIS and Russian pressure

Portal ETV: How do you expect the situation with NIS to be resolved? What move, in your opinion, might the Russian side make?

BISERKO: The fate of NIS is still uncertain. Moscow has shown no intention of accommodating Vučić, which he had hoped for, and that is why he failed to take steps to diversify energy supplies, despite recommendations from the European Union, from which he also received financial support for that purpose. This shows that he does not understand the international context and that he has greatly overestimated his international importance. Moreover, he is a political coward to make the only rational decision - nationalization of NIS. In this way, Serbia has been placed in the position of a Russian hostage.

There is speculation that Hungary could be a buyer, but that does not solve Serbia’s problem, as it is clear that Moscow stands behind such a move.

We are living in very dramatic times, and it is difficult to anticipate future developments.